-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Policy Determinants, Alternative Outcomes, U.S. Policy Approaches (Rep. 93-612 F)Congressional Research Service,Report for Congress June 24, 1993 By Rinn-Sup Shinn, Analyst in Asian Affairs,Foreign Affairs and National Defense Division*SUMMARYNorth Korea is undergoing a wrenching phase of adjustment to an uncertain post-Soviet world. Its government is reined in by two major constraints: fear that any political or economic reform would have the same fatal consequence for itself as it had for the former Soviet Union and other erstwhile allies; and fear that the United States, South Korea, and other "enemies" would stop at nothing to overthrow the communist regime of the North. The United States has a major stake in the outcome of North Korea's effort to deal with its daunting task. The challenge in the North has become compelling as Pyongyang has come up far short of its core policy objectives: political self-preservation, undermining South Korea--and by extension, U.S. military presence in the South; and obtaining economic and security support from the outside world. Facing an obvious need to change, Pyongyang is caught in a dilemma about reform. In the wake of the Soviet collapse, a shaken Pyongyang reaffirmed its resolve to defend a) its centrally planned, autarkic command economy; b) its monolithic, one-party system identified with the persona of Kim Il Sung, the "great leader" (and now with that of his son and de facto successor Kim Jong Il); and c) its policy of reunifying the two Koreas on Kim Il Sung's terms. The two Kims still talk as though time is on their side, and that they can outwait U.S. withdrawal from the South. Nonetheless, they seem to recognize that they need to end their self-enforced isolation, to say nothing of their unaccommodating foreign policy posture. A sense of urgency and a siege mentality are real and growing in Pyongyang. In...
